Daily brief · updated 3 Nov 2026, 06:00 UTC

XAU/USD & BTC/USDT market brief

A calm, data-driven read on gold and Bitcoin: the real levels, trend and momentum on the H4 and D1 charts, plus the economic events that could move them. Scenarios, not signals.

Not financial advice. Every number below is measured from live market data at the update time. We describe levels and scenarios to help you think, not buy/sell calls. Markets move fast and most retail traders lose money. Always do your own analysis and manage risk.

XAU/USD

3,919.7
Bearish (D1) / Bearish (H4)

Spot at 3919.7 sits below both daily moving averages, with EMA20 at 4080.41 and EMA50 at 4189.24 stacked above price, which keeps the daily structure pointed down. Daily RSI at 35.59 and H4 RSI at 33.59 are both soft without reaching the oversold line at 30, so momentum is weak rather than stretched. Price is also under the H4 EMA20 at 3974.55 and pressing the 20-day support at 3879.3, which is the same level as the recent 5-day low.

TimeframeTrendRSISupportResistance
D1down35.593,879.34,242.3
H4down33.593,879.34,097.2
If it rises

A reclaim of the H4 EMA20 at 3974.55 would put the 5-day high and H4 resistance at 4097.2 back in play, with the daily EMA20 at 4080.41 sitting just underneath it as the first real test.

If it falls

A clean break below the 3879.3 support, which doubles as both the 20-day and 5-day low, would leave the chart without a measured reference point beneath it and shift attention to how price behaves on any retest of that level from below.

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BTC/USDT

76,710
Bullish (D1) / Bearish (H4)

Spot at 76710 is caught between a daily EMA20 at 78370.68 overhead and a daily EMA50 at 73065.49 below, so the daily uptrend is intact on the longer average while the shorter one now caps price. Daily RSI at 45.9 and H4 RSI at 39.8 are both below the midpoint and neither is oversold, pointing to fading momentum rather than an exhausted move. The H4 picture is the tighter one: price is under the H4 EMA20 at 77748.16 and compressed between H4 resistance at 78728 and support at 76498, with the 5-day low at 76281 just beneath that.

TimeframeTrendRSISupportResistance
D1up45.962,66787,330
H4down39.876,49878,728
If it rises

A push back above the H4 resistance at 78728, which also clears the daily EMA20 at 78370.68, would open the way toward the 5-day high at 84808 and, beyond it, the 20-day resistance at 87330.

If it falls

A break under the H4 support at 76498 and the 5-day low at 76281 would expose the daily EMA50 at 73065.49, with the 20-day support at 62667 as the next measured level below that.

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High-impact events to watch

  • Tue 03:30 UTCAUDRBA Rate Statement
  • Tue 03:30 UTCAUDRBA Monetary Policy Statement
  • Tue 03:30 UTCAUDCash Rate
  • Tue 04:30 UTCAUDRBA Press Conference
  • Tue 15:16 UTCUSDCongressional Elections
  • Tue 21:45 UTCNZDUnemployment Rate
  • Tue 21:45 UTCNZDEmployment Change q/q
  • Thu 12:00 UTCGBPOfficial Bank Rate

The RBA statement and press conference on Tuesday, the US Congressional Elections the same day, New Zealand labour data Tuesday evening and the Bank of England rate decision on Thursday all carry scope to move the dollar and broader risk appetite, which can widen spreads and produce faster moves through the levels listed above for both gold and BTC.

Method: gold levels from COMEX gold futures (Yahoo Finance), Bitcoin from CoinGecko, both measured on the H4 and D1 timeframes. Economic calendar from ForexFactory. Trend is EMA20 versus EMA50; RSI is the 14-period reading; support and resistance are the recent swing extremes. Refreshed daily at 13:00. This is education, not a recommendation.